The Mathematics Behind "The One"

It's 11pm on a Friday night. I'm such a loser tonight that I have forgone the opportunity to hit the bars and clubs in order to sit here and write. Yes, I'm working on a couple of muscle relaxants. Yes, I have had 5-6 Whiskey-Cokes, but what the hell...TGIF, right?

So I had this random thought a few weeks ago and thought I should record it before it is like most of my thoughts these days...gone. I was thinking about the idea of "the one". Ya know, it's that one proverbial person that everyone thinks exists for him/her. I thought I'd provide some logic and analytical thought to the chances that we can actually meet someone like this. I mean, we meet people all the time, right? So why, is it so damn difficult to find people we click with? Well, here goes...

Let's start with the basic principle of probability. First, we assume that a person must have more than one trait we like in order to get in the pool of potentials. For example...

Good catch = Intelligent (x1) * funny (x2) * good looking (x3) * "n"

We agree that a person should have at least these three characteristics. For me, there are exactly 12 characteristics describing the perfect woman (listed another time), but everyone has a different number. The principle here is that there is a measurable probability that a person will have these traits. These probabilities change from person to person. For example, I may say that only 20% of people are attractive, whereas the person next to me may claim that 60% of people are attractive. This would be because I prefer to chase only 8's, while this person is content with 4's. Furthermore, we all have different expectations for intelligence. If I am to say that a Graduate degree is a good reflection of intelligence (perhaps it isn't), then some people may only select people with a Master's degree. This wholly constitutes less than 5% of the population. Another person may say a high school education is not even necessary, opening up the field of his/her choice to most of the general population.

Now for the mathematics. How hard is it to find a person that fits the most basic criteria you expect? See the equation below and the provided assumptions.

Assumptions:

• 3 out of 10 people are attractive (assuming you like 7's, 8's, 9's, or 10's)
• 3 out of 10 people have high intelligence (5 is average)
• 4 out of 10 people are funny (this assumes the same sense of humor as you)

So the equation for just three variables looks like this...

0.3(attractive) X 0.3(intelligence) X 0.4(humor) = 0.036 or 3.6%

Using this basic equation, the chance of you meeting a person that is even in the field of possibilities is only 3.6%. If you add to it other facts such as religious preference, values, and common interests, your chances of meeting "the one" drop to well below 1%. Guaranteed.

It is also true that the ratios for each of these variables may chance depending on your environment. For example, in a Nightclub, the probability of attractiveness may go up to 8 of 10 people, but then the intelligence and humor may decrease. In this case, the equation looks like this:

0.8 (attractive) X 0.2 (intelligence) X 0.1 (humor) = 0.016 or 1.6%

Net-net, you are probably better off finding someone average in all the important measures, instead of choosing one variable as most important and dramatically sacrificing others...i.e., go for 7's with good personalities.

The other option is to lower your expectations altogether. Be less selective. Don't be picky. When this is done, the probability goes up more dramatically than other ways.

0.8 X 0.8 X 0.8 = 0.512 or 51.2%

Now you have over a 50% chance! Of course, your standards have been significantly marginalized. This is what makes it feasible for most of the general population to easily marry and reproduce...they simply have a larger pool of possibilities than those who are selective.

There is one major variable that has not been discussed to this point--the idea that the person has to like you! All the above calculations are about assessing the pool of possibilities, but when you consider the fact that many people will not reciprocate your interest, probability can drop to deadly levels. For example, you may like attractive, intelligent, funny people, but if you are a smelly, fat, a$$hole, the likelihood that the person will reciprocate interest is very low. In this case, your probability drops to a small decimal, almost zero. Advice--lower standards to low levels.

The point of all of this is that simple probability theory proves that meeting the "one" is difficult. However, there is good news. Even under the worst conditions, you still have a lot of chances. If your chances are 1%, then technically there are 60 Million people in the world of 6 Billion that qualify, so be optimistic! It might take a while to search the world over, but at least you know what your chances are.

I honestly don't know how to break down this in any other way. I invite anyone who reads this to come up with another theory that is perhaps more optimistic about our chances to find someone we want to procreate with. :)